Week 3 – @NFLFantasy PPR Play/Bench Using #MachineLearning

Recap from Week 3 (sorry – I really am trying to post before Thursday night but it seems that between work right now and updating my model stats mid-week, I just run out of time).

Week 3 was wildly successful. NFL.com was closer this time in terms of predicting my win over my opponent but nowhere near to the results that I achieved. I will always stand by Russell Wilson – what kind of Seahawk would I be if I threw in the towel and in my 2nd league (Standard format), he did not fail! He was simply divine. But alas, he is not my primary league QB (Tom Brady is – a hard pill to swallow personally being a die hard Seahawks fan after what happened in a certain very important yesteryear game – but he has proven his PPR fantasy value in Week 3). Primary League Week 3 – Wins = 3 / Losses = 0 (remember, after draft day, I was projected to end the season with an 8-8 W/L ratio. So, this might be the week; maybe not).

But last week, I genuinely felt bad – Locheness Jabberwokies, my week 3 opponent, happens to also be my man. And, this annihilation just felt like a win that went one step over the line of fairness. I mean a win’s a win – but this kind of decimation belongs outside of one’s relationship. Trust me. But he was a good sport. Except, he will no longer listen to my neurotic banter about losing in any given week, even if all signs point to a loss. Somehow, when I trust my model, it all works out. Now, I can’t predict injuries mid game like what happened in Week 4 to Ty Montgomery (my League 3 Flex position player). Standard league wise, he brought home 2.3 points ~ projected to earn about 10.70 Standard points with a st. deviation of +/- 1.5. But this was my lineup for Week 3 across my 3 leagues:

League #1 (Primary PPR) – remember, I aim to not just win but also optimize my lineup. #nfl.com,#fantasyfootball,#PPR,#Week3,#2017

A bench full of points is a fail to me. But in this case, I benched Jordan Reed and picked up whomever was the next available TE off the waiver wire (granted he definitely contributed nothing). But out of my WR1 and WR2 + WR Flex, those I played were the best options (even though Mike Evans came in about 1.10 points less than Adam Thielen (bench), it was within the expected standard deviation, so either one would have been fine if played).

My RB situation has always been the bane of my league this year starting with my draft choices – Nothing to write home about except seeing the early value of Kareem Hunt (TG), even when NFL.com continued to project very little in his court.

Terrance West was supposed to be double digits but my model said to bench him vs. either Mike Gillislee or Kerwynn Williams. Both scored very little and essentially were within their own standard deviation negating their slight point difference.

All in all, players played worked out well and yes, though many stellar performances carried those that failed might be outliers in some regard (or at least they won’t bring home that many points week over week).  But the PPR space is my golden circle of happiness – after all, I built my original algorithm using PPR league play / bench + historical point spreads + my secret sauce nearly 5 years ago; and those years of learning have “taught” the model (and me) many nuances otherwise missed by others in the sports ML space (though I respect greatly what my fellow ML “sportstaticians” put forth, my approach is very different from what I glean from others’ work).

One day, I would love to have a league with only ML Sports folks; the great battle of the algorithmic approaches – if you are interested, let me know in the comments.

League 2 (Standard): Wins = 3/Losses = 0:

As you can see, I should have played DeSean Jackson over Adam Thielen or my Flex position Ty Montgomery. And geez, I totally spaced on pulling Jordan Reed like I did in League 1. This win was largely because of Russell Wilson, as mentioned before, Devonta Freeman and the Defense waiver wire pick up of the Bengals who Im glad I picked up in time for the game. oh yeah, I am not sure why Cairo Santos shows as BYE but earned me 6 points??? NFL.com has some weird stuff happening around 12:30 last Sunday ; games showed as in play (even though kick off wasn’t for another 30 minutes); and those that showed in play erroneously allowed players to be added from the wire still as though the games weren’t kicked off. Anyway, not as proud but still another win – Year 1 for Standard; perhaps after another 5 years training Standard like my PPR league, I will have more predictable outcomes , other than luck.

#NFL.com, #Week3, #Standard,@NFLFantasy, #machinelearning

#NFL.com, #Week3, #Standard,@NFLFantasy

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Eye Tracking & Applied ML: Soapbox Validations

Anyone who has read my blog (shameless self-plug: http://www.lauraedell.com) over the past 12 years will know, I am very passionate about drinking my own analytical cool-aid. Whether during my stints as a Programmer, BI Developer, BI Manager, Practice Lead / Consultant or Senior Data Scientist, I believe wholeheartedly in measuring my own success with advanced analytics.  Even my fantasy football success (more on that in a later post) can be attributed to Advanced Machine Learning…But you wouldn’t believe how often this type of measurement gets ignored.
eyetracking
Introducing you, dear reader, to my friend “Eye-Tracker” (ET). Daunting little set of machines in that image, right?! But ET is a bonafide bada$$ in the world of measurement systems; oh yeah, and ET isn’t a new tech trend – in fact, mainstream  ET systems are a staple of any PR, marketing or web designers’ tool  arsenal  as a stick to measure program efficacy between user intended behavior & actual outcomes/actions.

In my early 20’s, I had my own ET experience & have been a passionate advocate since, having witnessed what happens when you compound user inexperience with poorly designed search / e-commerce operator sites.  I was lucky enough to work for the now uber online travel company who shall go nameless (okay, here is a hint: remember a little ditty that ended with some hillbilly singing “dot commmm” & you will know to whom I refer). This company believed so wholeheartedly in the user experience that they allowed me, young ingénue of the workplace, to spend thousands on eye tracking studies against a series of balanced scorecards that I was developing for the senior leadership team. This is important because you can ASK someone whether a designed visualization is WHAT THEY WERE THINKING or WANTING, even if built iteratively with the requestor. Why, you ponder to yourself, would this be necessary when I can just ask/survey my customers about their online experiences with my company and saved beaucorp $$.

Well, here’s why: 9x out of 10, survey participants, in not wanting to offend, will nod ‘yes’  instead of being honest, employing conflict avoidance at its best. Note, this applies to most, but I can think of a few in my new role who are probably reading this and shaking their head in disagreement at this very moment.

Eye tracking studies are used to measure efficacy by tracking what content areas engage users’ brains vs. areas that fall flat, are lackluster, overdesigned &/or contribute to eye/brain fatigue. It measures this by “tracking” where & for how long your eyes dwell on a quadrant (aka visual / website content / widget on a dashboard) and by recording the path & movement of the eyes between different quadrants’ on a page. It’s amazing to watch these advanced, algorithmic-tuned systems, pick up even the smallest flick of one’s eyes, whether darting to or away from the “above-fold” content, in ‘near’ real-time. The intended audience being measured generates the validation statistics necessary to evaluate how well your model fit the data. In the real-world, receiving attaboys or “ya done a good job” high fives should be doled out only after validating efficacy: eg. if customers dwell time increases, you can determine randomness vs. intended actual; otherwise, go back to the proverbial drawing board until earn that ‘Atta boy’ outright.

What I also learned which seems a no-brainer now; people read from Left Top to Right Bottom (LURB). So, when I see anything that doesn’t at LEAST follow those two simple principles, I just shake my head and tisk tisk tisk, wondering if human evolution is shifting with our digital transformation journey or are we destined to be bucketed with the “that’s interesting to view once” crowd instead of raising to the levels of usefulness it was designed for.

Come on now, how hard is it to remember to stick the most important info in that top left quadrant and the least important in the bottom right, especially when creating visualizations for use in the corporate workplace by senior execs. They have even less time & attention these days to focus on even the most relevant KPIs, those they need to monitor to run their business & will get asked to update the CEO on each QTR, with all those fun distractions that come with the latest vernacular du-jour taking up all their brain space: “give me MACHINE LEARNING or give me death; the upstart that replaced mobile/cloud/big data/business intelligence (you fill in the blank).
But for so long, it was me against the hard reality that no one knew what I was blabbing on about, nor would they give me carte blanche to re-run those studies ever again , And lo and behold, my Laura-ism soapbox has now been vetted, in fact, quantified by a prestigious University professor from Carnegie, all possible because a little know hero named Edmond Huey, now near and dear to my heart, grandfather of the heatmap, followed up his color-friendly block chart by building the first device capable of tracking eye movements while people were reading. This breakthrough initiated a revolution for scientists but it was intrusive and readers had to wear special lenses with a tiny opening and a pointer attached to it like the 1st image pictured above.
Fast forward 100 years…combine all ingredients into the cauldron of innovation & technological advancement, sprinkled with my favorite algorithmic pals: CNN & LSTM & voila! You have just baked yourself a popular visualization known as a heat/tree map (with identifiable info redacted) :
This common visual is  akin to eye tracking analytics which you will see exemplified in the last example below. Cool history lesson, right?

Even cooler is this example from a travel website ‘Travel Tripper’ which published Google eye-tracking results specific to the hotel industry. Instead of a treemap that you might be used to (akin to a Tableau or other BI tool visualization OOTB), you get the same coordinates laid out over search results in this example; imagine having your website underneath and instead of guessing what content should be above or below the fold, in the top left or right of the page, you can use these tried and true eye tracking methods to quantify exactly what content items customers or users are attracted to 1st and where their eyes “dwell” the longest on the page (red hot).

So, for those non-believers, I say, become a web analytic trendsetter, driving the future of machine design forward (ala “Web Analytics 3.0”).

Be a future-thinker, forward mover, innovator of your data science sphere of influence, always curious yet informed to make intelligent choices.

Finance is the Participation Sport of the BI Olympics

IT is no longer the powerhouse that it once was, and unfortunately for CIOs who haven’t embraced change, much of their realm was commoditized by cloud computing powered by the core principles of grid computational engines and schema-less database designs. The whole concept of spending millions of dollars to bring all disparate systems together into one data warehouse has proven modesty beneficial but if we are being truly honest, what has all that money and time actually yielded, especially towards the bottom line?
And by the time you finished with the EDW, I guarantee it was missing core operational data streams that were then designed into their own sea of data marts. Fast forward a few years, and you probably have some level of EDW, many more data marts , probably one or more cube (ROLAP/MOLAP) applications and n-number of cubes or a massive 1+ hyper-cube(s) and still, the business depends of spreadsheets to sit on top of these systems, creating individual silos of information under the desk or in the mind of one individual.

Wait<<<rewind<<< Isn’t that where we started?

Having disparate, ungoverned and untrusted data sources being managed by individuals instead of by enterprise systems of record?

And now we’re back>>>press play to continue>>>

When you stop to think about the last ten years, fellow BI practitioners, you might be scared of your ever-changing role. From a grass-roots effort to a formalized department team, Business Intelligence went from the shadows to the mainstream, and brought with it reports then dashboards, then KPIs and scorecards, managing by exception, proactive notifications and so on. And bam! We were hit by the first smattering of changes to come when Hadoop and others hit the presses. But we really didnt grok what the true potential and actual meaning of said systems unless you come from a background like myself, either competitively, or from a big data friendly industry group like telecommunications, or from a consultant/implementation p.o.v.
And then social networking took off like gang busters and mobile became a reality with the introduction of the tablet device (though, I hate to float my boat as always by mentioning my soap box dream spewed at a TDWI conference about the future of mobile BI when the 1st generation iPhone released).

But that is neither here nor there. And, as always, I digress and am back…

At the same time as we myopically focused on the technological changing landscape around us, a shifting power paradigm was building wherein the Finance organization, once relegated to the back partition of cubicles, where a pin drop was heard ’round the world (or at least, the floor), was growing more and more despondent with not being able to access the data they needed without IT intervention in order to update their monthly forecasts and produce their subsequent P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Planning statements. And IT’s response was to acquire (for additional millions of dollars) a “BI tool” aka an ad-hoc reporting application that would allow them to pull their own data. But it had been installed and the data had been pulled, and validated and by the time of completion, the Finance team had either found an alternate solution or found the system useful for a very small sliver of analysis but went outside of IT to get additional sources of information that wanted and needed to adapt to the changing business pressures from the convergence of social, mobile and unstructured datasets. And suddenly those once, shiny BI tools, seemed like antiquated relics, and simply could not handle the sheer data volumes that were now expected from it or would crash (unless filtered beyond the point of value). Businesses need not adapt their queries to the tool but need a tool that can adapt to their ever-changing processes and needed.

Drowning in data but starving for information...

Drowning in data but starving for information…

So if necessity if the mother of invention, Finance was its well deserving child. And why? The business across the board is starving for information but drowning in data. And Finance is no longer a game of solitaire, understood by few and ignored by many. In fact, Finance has become the participation sport of the BI Olympics, and rightfully so, where departmental collaboration at the fringe of the organization has proven as the missing link that before prevented successful top-down planning efforts. Where visualizations demands made dashboards a thing of the past, and demanded and better story, vis-a-vie storylines / infographics, to help disseminate more than just the numbers, but the story behind the numbers to the rest of the organization, or what I like to call the “fringe”.

I remember a few years ago when the biggest challenge was getting data, and often, we joked about how nice it would be to have a sea of data to drown in; an analysts’ buffet-du-jour; a happy paralysis-induced-by said analysis plate was the special of the day, yet only for a few, while the rest was but a gleam in our data-starved eyes.

Looking forward from there, I ask, dear reader, where do we go from here…If it’s a Finance party and we are all invited, what do we bring to the party table as BI practitioners of value? Can we provide the next critical differentiator?

Well, I believe that we can, and that critical differentiator is forward-looking data. Why?

Gartner Group stated that “Predictive data will increase profitability by 20% and that historical data will become a thing of the past” (for a BI practitioner, the last part of that statement should worry you, if you are still resisting the plunge into the predictive analytics pool).

Remember, predictive is a process that allows an organization to get true insight and has been executed amongst a larger group of people to drive faster, smarter business users. This is perfect for enterprise needs because by definition, they offer a larger group of people to work with.

Smooth sailingIn fact, it was Jack Welch would said  An organization’s ability to learn, and translate that learning into action rapidly, is the ultimate competitive advantage” 

If you haven’t already, go out and started learning one of the statistical application packages. I suggest “R” and in the coming weeks, I will provide R and SAS scripts (I have experience with both) for those interested in growing their chosen profession and remaining relevant as we weather the sea of business changes

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